A public opinion poll, commissioned by Mississippi Today, that last month showed Gov. Tate Reeves in serious trouble in his reelection bid was tough enough to swallow.
Now comes another one from a different organization that’s even harder to believe. It shows the Republican incumbent, almost nine months out from the election, trailing his Democratic challenger by 4 percentage points.
This latest poll appears to reflect the bias of the organization that paid for it — the Southern Poverty Law Center Action Fund and a related political action committee. The civil rights group leans heavily toward Democratic candidates, so it’s not surprising that it would have Brandon Presley, the Democrat, in the lead.
But that’s wishful thinking.
Reeves may have his critics, including often this newspaper, but he’s got five winning statewide elections on his belt and high name recognition statewide. Brandon Presley may be distantly related to the late famous singer with the same last name, but the living Presley is not particularly well-known beyond North Mississippi, which he has represented on the Public Service Commission for the past 16 years.
And while both Reeves and Presley have been in public office for about the same amount of time, serving on the PSC gets a fraction of the television and online coverage that Reeves has received as governor and, before that, lieutenant governor.
With such a likely advantage in name recognition and in a state that is heavily Republican, it strains credibility to think Reeves is trailing.
Polls this far out from an election may make for interesting headlines, but they are largely meaningless. They’re especially meaningless when the pollsters are using leading questions, such as was the case in at least some of the SPLC poll.
Presley is going to put up a spirited challenge. That’s obvious from the early stages of the race. He’s going to need a lot of money, though, to overcome Reeves’ sizable campaign war chest. The flow of those dollars is going to hinge on how much the National Democratic Party and its better-heeled supporters believe Reeves is beatable.
Before they invest a lot in Mississippi’s governor’s race, they are going to expect more believable polling than what has surfaced so far.
